For those who haven't heard: This presidential election season is different.
For those Iowans who haven't heard: Roughly 25 million Americans will be able to cast votes in 2008 Presidential preference primaries without consideration of which candidates earn Iowa bragging rights.
In 2008, two caucus states will go first - Iowa and Nevada - on Jan. 14 and Jan 19, respectively. They will be closely followed by New Hampshire with the nation's first primary Jan. 22 and a Democrats-only primary in South Carolina on Jan. 29. Only recently, the legislature in Florida moved its primary to Jan. 29, although there is still discussion about whether the Democrats will remain on that date or they'll move further back into the field and switch to a caucus. While no date has been set for the South Carolina Republican primary, state party leaders have indicated they will schedule the vote prior to any other southern contest (including Florida).
The first Tuesday in February, the fifth, became the first date all remaining states (which did originally include Florida) could schedule their Presidential Preference contests. It didn't take long for many states to decide they wanted to be first out of the gate. The entire state of Idaho and Democrats in New Mexico will be holding caucuses on Feb. 5. Alabama, Arkansas, California, Delaware, Illinois, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Utah are the 11 states holding their primaries on that date.
The work-in-progress calendar of primaries and caucuses maintained by the National Association of Secretaries of State shows Arizona, Connecticut, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Texas as states with primaries that are considering a move to Feb. 5. In addition, caucus state Colorado is also considering a move to Feb. 5, according to NASS.
Compared to the first Tuesday, the remainder of February is quiet. Louisiana will hold primaries on Feb. 9. Democrats in Maine will caucus on Feb. 10. Maryland and Virginia will host primaries on Feb. 12 and Wisconsin will follow suit on Feb. 19. Democrats in Hawaii and Idaho finish off the month with their caucuses on Feb. 26.
So where are all these million of votes which might be cast prior to the Iowa caucus? As the saying goes, timing is everything.
While votes may have not been counted in other states, there will have most definitely been votes cast prior to Iowa's current caucus date of Jan. 14. Voters in five of the Feb. 5 primary states -- California, Illinois, New Jersey, Oklahoma, and Utah - will be able to cast ballots well before Iowans begin lining up at their caucus locations through the advent of early and absentee voting.
According to one Iowa political insider, all the Presidential campaigns are aware -- or at least should be aware -- of the absentee ballots that will be cast prior to the Iowa caucus. "This dynamic, however, is so new and untested," the source said, "no campaign is going to discuss its particular strategy in dealing with it."
California, in particular, poses a unique opportunity to presidential hopefuls. As of November 2006, the state had nearly 4 million voters signed up to be permanent absentee voters. That is, nearly 4 million California voters will have an absentee ballot automatically placed in the mail to them on Jan. 7, 2008. According to an official in the California Secretary of State's office, military and overseas ballots are to be mailed beginning Dec. 7, and California plans to do "as much as possible" to boost its primary into the national spotlight.
It's difficult to know exactly what the impact will be, especially since two of the states -- Illinois and New Jersey -- will be hosting their first presidential preference where early voting is allowed without excuse. New Jersey has just under 5 million voters registered. Of those, just over 2 million, or 48 percent, participated in the Nov. 2006 general election. While the Division of Elections does not maintain statewide totals of the percentage of population to vote absentee, the clerk's office in Bergen County (the county with the largest population) reports roughly 6 percent of the county voted by absentee in 2006 -- only one year after the legislature allowed "no excuse" absentee voting.
While Illinois allows those with a valid excuse to vote by mail or in person 40 days prior to an election, in 2005 the state also began offering unqualified early voting 22 days prior to an election. This means that the state's 7 million registered voters will have an opportunity to cast an early ballot prior to the start of the Iowa caucus and, because of the newness of the program, there is no historical indicator of how many will vote early.
Given California's permanent absentee voters and traditional percentages of individuals who cast "no excuse" absentee votes; however, it would not be unlikely to see 5 million absentee votes in the can prior to the start of the Iowa caucus.
Carrie Giddins, communications director for the Iowa Democratic Party, agrees there will be absentee ballots cast prior to the Iowa caucus; however, she takes offense to the 25 million figure. "You're looking at total registered voters across those five states," she said. "Not everyone is going to vote. And of those who do vote, not everyone is going to vote absentee -- and not everyone who votes absentee is going to do so prior to the Iowa caucus. There's one line of thinking which says many of the absentee voters will hang on to their ballots to see what happens in Iowa.
"No matter how many absentee votes are cast," she added, "the results of those ballots will not be announced prior to the Iowa caucus."
Former U.S. Congressman and state party chair Dave Nagle says he isn't sure what dynamic will play out in the 2008 elections.
"Of course having the calendar so front loaded is a major disadvantage to candidates who are without major funding," he said in a phone interview on Tuesday. "Coming in fourth in Iowa caucuses is no longer good enough. If a lesser candidate wants to continue, the campaign will have to climb into Iowa's top three.
"The fear for both sides of the aisle is that you end up a year out from the actual contest with a 'wounded duck' who has not been throughly tested. That could actually intensify late state activity although historically those types of late rallies haven't been successful as some of the later voters may view the early front runner as inevitable."
Nagle finished by saying what could really be "devastating to Iowa" would be if those front states begin releasing their absentee ballot return totals prior to the caucus.
Of those states considering a jump to Feb. 5 (or earlier), five could have additional influence due to their absentee balloting and/or early voting practices. Arizona, Kansas (which has only held two presidential preference primaries -- 1980 and 1992), North Carolina, Oregon and Texas all will potentially play a larger role if their contests move forward.
Since all the crystal balls seem to be malfunctioning when it comes to Iowa and the 2008 elections, no one can say for sure if the current and possible calendars will push Iowa to a position of more importance or bring to a close the state's leading role in presidential politics. There is one thing, however, of which all Iowans can be sure: No one can vote absentee in our caucus.