Like everyone else, I've been seeing the polls and wondering just how true they are. Is it possible that Sen. Barack Obama has an opportunity to carry Montana? North Dakota? And, like most others, I'm still in head-shaking mode. It frankly just doesn't seem possible.
Two things have happened in the past 24 hours that have me moving away from wonderment and into belief.
An aunt phoned me from Oklahoma last night. This is the same aunt who, in the 1980s, apologized profusely and tucked a $20 bill in my pocket when she confessed that no matter how many doors I knocked for Congressman Mike Synar, she just couldn't bring herself to vote for a Democrat. To my knowledge, she has never voted for a Democrat and, as far as I knew, the very consideration of doing so was probably enough to have her knees go weak.
The aunt heard from another relative that I had opportunity during the Iowa caucus to meet face-to-face with Obama, and she wanted to ask me a few questions. For instance, she wanted to know if the man -- you know, a United States Senator -- really was a terrorist who hated America.
We spoke for a few moments and I told her my impressions of both Obama and McCain. Although she never said so, I got the distinct impression that she is searching for justification and/or permission to cast her vote for Obama.
After speaking with my aunt, I thought it might be interesting to check in on the overall polling in Oklahoma. Unsurprisingly, it's not good news for national Democratic ticket. Although it's easy to see the blue line heading up and the red line heading down, the McCain-Palin ticket, according to Pollster, is running with roughly 62 percent of the vote. The Obama-Biden ticket has about 34 percent.
On a state level, however, there appears to be some major movement:
The graph above shows polling in the U.S. Senate race featuring Republican incumbent Jim Inhofe and Democratic challenger Andrew Rice. While at first glance this doesn't look at all promising, it's important to note that in the beginning this race was rated +41R. Based on the past few polls, the race now sits at +12R. Major scandals withstanding, I'm not sure there has ever been a Democratic gain of that proportion in Oklahoma against a sitting incumbent.
For most politicians a double-digit lead would be comfortable, but it seems that's not necessarily the case for Inhofe. He has released a series of attacks against Rice.
The ironic part is that while there have been some Republican incumbents connecting themselves to Obama in hopes of riding out the supposedly impending wave of public discontent (yes, seriously), Inhofe's latest attack seeks to link Rice to Obama and paints them both as *gasp* "liberals." After watching and listening to so many McCain attack ads that are playing here in Iowa, I'm fairly sure that he and Inhofe are using the same company or director. It sure sounds a lot like the "scary-voice" woman that's been narrating on the ads here.
The bottom line is that incumbents, unless they are being seriously challenged, don't produce negative attack ads. As an example, view Sen. Tom Harkin's new ad. If you watch Harkin's ad -- or his previous ad -- you'll notice that there is no mention of an opponent. That's because, for all practical purposes, there isn't one that is making significant in-roads.
So, here's hoping that Rice is able to take full advantage of the final few days of the campaign. Inhofe really deserves to spend time with his lovely family (which has never had a homosexual).
