Essential Estrogen

While polls in Iowa and the nation don't show their chosen candidates as front-runners, former Minnesota Congressman Rick Nolan and Iowa Rep. Mike Reasoner say the American people should stop and remember history.

"Of course there is some concern there," said Nolan, who has been traveling Iowa as a surrogate for Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd. "But, having said that, this time four years ago Joe Lieberman was the leading Democratic candidate here in Iowa, and shortly after that Dick Gephardt was the leading candidate and then Howard Dean was the leading candidate. The same has been true for other Democratic candidates -- Bill Clinton, Jimmy Carter, John Kennedy. Dodd is now right about where all of those winners were."

Reasoner, D-Creston, has been stumping on behalf of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden and also believes the lessons of four years ago are important.

"I believe, if you look back, Howard Dean was the odds-on favorite as the Democratic Party's nominee," he said. "John Kerry was not necessarily the person to beat. Likewise, John Edwards was not a front-runner. They were both back in the pack, but then they emerged in the late fall before the caucuses four years ago. That's exactly what I think you're going to see Senator Biden do, too."

Confidence, said the surrogates, comes from knowing Iowa will lead the nomination process.

"As we -- people around Iowa -- take our time and get to know our candidates, I think you'll see that instead of having the candidates as a group, individuals will begin to stand out," Reasoner said. "It won't be because they are on television or because of their star name, but because of what they have to say."

Rock stars and their tendency to fade was also on Nolan's mind.

"Iowa has a way of teaching everybody some hard lessons," Nolan said. "We have a great staff and some incredible volunteers here in Iowa. It seems to me after going around the state that Chris Dodd is on everyone's short list although not on as many people's first-choice list as I'd like to see. Many of the people who have chosen one of the big three -- or rock stars -- are very loosely committed to them."

An August poll conducted by AARP supports Nolan's assertion. A total of 5,000 AARP members were surveyed, and two-thirds were found likely to change their candidate preference as more is learned about other candidates' positions. Among Democratic participants in Iowa, more than seven in 10 say they are very (31 percent) or somewhat (46 percent) likely to change their candidate preference as they learn more about the issues between now and the caucus.

When poll participants were asked to rate candidates on how well they have addressed the issue of ensuring all Americans can build financial security for their entire lifetimes, 61 percent said they didn't know enough about Biden's stance and 65 percent said they didn't know enough about Dodd's stance to offer a rating. Ratings in relation to candidate stance on health care met with similar results. Dodd's stance was unknown to 61 percent, and Biden's stance was unknown to 58 percent of those surveyed.

"Should any of these others falter as the frontrunners have historically tended to do here in Iowa, I think we are well placed," Nolan said. "I think we're poised to make something happen."

Iowa's expertise in retail politics is what both makes the difference and confuses the rest of the nation, says Reasoner.

"You see not only the senator but members of his family and individuals speaking on his behalf going around the state to meetings in cafes, living rooms and meeting halls," he said. "Historically Iowans don't get together in groups of 400 or 500 people. Normally, you have five, 10 or maybe 20 people at a time. That's how we've traditionally conducted our caucuses. That's how we get to know our candidates, and that's how we get to identify with them. Just because someone is on television constantly and has name recognition right away doesn't mean that person will have a great caucus night. We want to know what that person has to say. We want to know how that person stands on the issues important to America."